My newest research is on the social and political effects of technological change and the digital transformation. Here, I rely mainly on data from the OECD's Risks that Matter survey program, to which my colleagues and I contributed questions on how people perceive the impacts of technology. A key finding from this work is that the higher-educated are now on average almost as worried about losing their jobs to technology as those without higher education — which seems to be driven by exposure to "AI" technology, and which already has meaningful effects on their political attitudes.

Some findings are already published in the Socio-Economic Review and in Political Research Exchange, others are under review or available as working papers.

Much of my research from the last few years is concerned with public attitudes toward immigrants and with immigrants' labor market integration, and relies mainly on surveys and survey experiments. For example, a recently published article in Political Studies looks at the psychological factors behind "welfare chauvinist" attitudes, meaning not wanting to give immigrants access to social protection systems. Another study analyzes hiring discrimination against refugees and shows whether male or female refugees face more discrimination by recruiters and why that is (published in the International Migration Review). Related to this, Flavia Fossati, Gemma Scalise, Gerda Hooijer, and I co-edited a special issue in the Journal of European Social Policy which features studies on how employers and trade unions influence the inclusion of immigrants into welfare states and labor markets.

Some other recent studies look at right-wing populist voters and, for example, their attitudes toward social protection and redistribution (published in West European Politics) or the extent to which they hold implicit biases against persons with dark skin tones (published in Acta Politica).

Together with Giuliano Bonoli, Flavia Fossati, Mia Gandenberger, and Philipp Trein, I studied how the Swiss public thought about the COVID-19 pandemic and the government's response to it. We conducted original public opinion surveys, which included survey experiments on people's attitudes toward important questions such as the allocation of ICU beds among COVID-patients ("pandemic triage"), the distribution of vaccines, travel restrictions, and financial aid to small companies. Our results are published in articles in Social Science & Medicine, the Journal of Social Policy, the Journal of European Social Policy, and the Swiss Political Science Review (see the list of my publications below).

You can find additional results and data presented on our interactive data dashboard, and you can download our data here.

As part of my doctoral research, I co-led a research project in which we constructed quantitative measurements of the strictness of job-search and work-availability requirements and sanction rules for unemployment benefit claimants in different countries. The resulting dataset covers 21 advanced democracies between 1980 and 2012. You can find the dataset, a more detailed description of the project, and key findings and publications based on it on the dedicated project homepage.

I also collaborated with Herwig Immervoll on the OECD's related data collection activities on activation requirements for jobseekers. The data can be acccessed from OECD.Stat. The main findings are described in two working papers (see below).

• Knotz, Carlo, Juliana Chueri, and Alyssa Taylor. (forthc). "Populist right-wing voting: the (conditional) role of implicit bias" Acta Politica [https://doi.org/10.1057/s41269-024-00369-z] [Read-only access] [Replication files]
• Knotz, Carlo, Andrey Ugarte Montero, Maude Lavanchy, and Joël Wagner. 2024. "Bankers are afraid of technology now: explaining perceived vulnerability to technological change among the higher-educated" Political Research Exchange 6(1):2389910. [https://doi.org/10.1080/2474736X.2024.2389910] [Replication files].
• Chueri, Juliana, Mia Gandenberger, Alyssa Taylor, Carlo Knotz, and Flavia Fossati. (forthc). "Re-evaluating the welfare preferences of radical-right voters: evidence from a vignette experiment" West European Politics. [https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2024.2356375] [Replication files] [Working paper version]
• Knotz, Carlo, Alyssa Taylor, Mia Gandenberger, and Juliana Chueri. (forthc). "What Drives Opposition to Social Rights for Immigrants? Clarifying the Role of Psychological Predispositions" Political Studies. [https://doi.org/10.1177/00323217241228456] [Replication files]
• Fossati, Flavia, Carlo Knotz, Fabienne Liechti, and Ihssane Otmani. 2024. "The Gender Employment Gap among Refugees and the Role of Employer Discrimination: Experimental Evidence from the German, Swedish and Austrian Labor Markets" International Migration Review. 58(1):147-172. [https://doi.org/10.1177/01979183221134274] [Data access]
• Gandenberger, Mia, Carlo Knotz, Flavia Fossati and Giuliano Bonoli. 2023. "Conditional Solidarity - Attitudes Towards Support for Others During the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic" Journal of Social Policy 52(4):943-961. [https://doi.org/10.1017/S0047279421001070] [Data access]
• Busemeyer, Marius R., Mia Gandenberger, Carlo Knotz and Tobias Tober. 2023. "Preferred Policy Responses to Technological Change: Survey evidence from OECD countries" Socio-Economic Review 21(1):593-615. [https://doi.org/10.1093/ser/mwac015] [Data access]
• Bonoli, Giuliano, Flavia Fossati, Mia Gandenberger and Carlo Knotz. 2022. "Sometimes needs change minds: Interests and values as determinants of attitudes towards state support for the self-employed during the COVID-19 crisis" Journal of European Social Policy 32(4):407-421. [https://doi.org/10.1177%2F09589287221106977] [Data access]
• Knotz, Carlo, Mia Gandenberger, Flavia Fossati and Giuliano Bonoli. 2021. "A Recast Framework for Welfare Deservingness Perceptions" Social Indicators Research 159:927-943. [https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-021-02774-9] [Replication files]
• Knotz, Carlo, Mia Gandenberger, Flavia Fossati and Giuliano Bonoli. 2021. "Public attitudes toward pandemic triage: Evidence from conjoint survey experiments in Switzerland" Social Science & Medicine 285:114238. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114238] [Replication files]
• Knotz, Carlo, Mia Gandenberger, Flavia Fossati and Giuliano Bonoli. 2021. "Popular Attitudes Toward the Distribution of Vaccines Against COVID‐19: The Swiss Case" Swiss Political Science Review 27(2):297-310. [https://doi.org/10.1111/spsr.12461] [Replication files]
• Knotz, Carlo. 2021. "The Politics of Benefit Work Conditionality" Journal of European Public Policy 28(12):2011-2022. [https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2020.1813793]
• Knotz, Carlo, Flavia Fossati, Gemma Scalise and Gerda Hooijer. 2020. "The roles of employers and trade unions in immigration and welfare state policymaking" Journal of European Social Policy 30(5):521-527. [doi.org/10.1177%2F0958928720960592]
• Knotz, Carlo. 2020. "Does Demanding Activation Work? A comparative analysis of the effects of unemployment benefit conditionality on employment in 21 advanced economies, 1980–2012" European Sociological Review 36(1):121-135. [doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcz041]
• Knotz, Carlo. 2019. "Why Countries 'Get Tough on the Work-Shy': The role of adverse economic conditions" Journal of Social Policy 48(3):615-634. [doi.org/10.1017/S0047279418000740]
• Knotz, Carlo. 2018. "A Rising Workfare State? Unemployment Benefit Conditionality in 21 OECD Countries, 1980-2012" Journal of International and Comparative Social Policy 34(2):91–108. [doi.org/10.1080/21699763.2018.1472136]
• Knotz, Carlo and Johannes Lindvall. 2015. "Coalitions and Compensation: The Case of Unemployment Benefit Duration" Comparative Political Studies 48(5):586-615. [doi.org/10.1177/0010414014556209] [Replication files]

• Knotz, Carlo, Flavia Fossati, Gemma Scalise and Gerda Hooijer (guest editors). 2020. "Special Issue: Immigration and the Welfare State – The role of capital and labour" Journal of European Social Policy 30(5).

• Lutz, Philipp and Carlo Knotz. 2022. "The legitimacy of the welfare state in the age of migration" In: Bent Greve (ed.) De Gruyter Handbook of Contemporary Welfare States (Vol. I), pp. 271-284. Berlin & Boston. [https://doi.org/10.1515/9783110721768-016]

• Knotz, Carlo. 2024. "Not feeling like winners: The higher educated and the AI revolution" SocArXiv Working Paper. [https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/e25cd]
• Knotz, Carlo, Flavia Fossati, and Fabienne Liechti. 2024. "Explaining the lacking effectiveness of labor market integration programs for workers with immigrant backgrounds: The role of cognitive shortcuts in recruitment". SSRN Working Paper. [Access].
• Sidler, Petra, Carlo Knotz, and Didier Ruedin. 2024. "How Do People Perceive Immigrants? Relating the Perceptions of Immigrants to Actual Numbers" SocArXiv Working Paper. [Access]
• Immervoll, Herwig, Carlo Knotz, and Jongmi Lee. 2022. "Activity-related eligibility conditions for receiving unemployment benefits: Results 2022" OECD Report to the European Union. [Download] [Data]
• Fossati, Flavia, Carlo Knotz, Mia Gandenberger and Giuliano Bonoli. 2021. "Unterstützung für die Schwächsten: Die öffentliche Meinung in der Schweiz während der Corona-Pandemie" In: Christian Ewert and Lea Heyne. One Year with COVID-19. DemocracyNet. pp. 97-103. [Download]
• Immervoll, Herwig, Carlo Knotz and Ihssane Otmani. 2020. "Activity-related eligibility conditions for receiving unemployment benefits" OECD Report to the European Union. [Download] [Data]
• Bonoli, Giuliano, Flavia Fossati, Mia Gandenberger and Carlo Knotz. 2020. "What Form Should Solidarity Take During the Health Crisis?" NCCR — on the move in a nutshell 17. [Download]
• Verbeek, Hans, Benedikt Fritz and Carlo Knotz. 2020. "Ansätze zur Evaluation von Auswirkungen des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns auf die Schwarzarbeit" Report to the German Minimum Wage Commission. Cologne & Berlin: Institut für Sozialforschung & Gesellschaftspolitik. [Download]
• Knotz, Carlo, Mia Gandenberger, Flavia Fossati and Giuliano Bonoli. 2020. "R.I.C.E. — An Integrated Model of Welfare Deservingness Perceptions” NCCR — on the move Working Paper 26 [Download]
• Knotz, Carlo and Johannes Lindvall. 2019. "Using Quantitative Methods to Study Welfare State Reforms" Invited contribution to the SAGE Research Methods Cases [doi.org/10.4135/9781526467034]
• Immervoll, Herwig and Carlo Knotz. 2018. "How demanding are activation requirements for jobseekers?" OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 215. [doi.org/10.1787/2bdfecca-en]
• Knotz, Carlo. 2016. Getting Tough on Unemployment: Essays on the politics of unemployment benefit reform in affluent democracies. PhD Dissertation. Lund: Lund University Press. [Access]
• Knotz, Carlo. 2012. "Measuring the 'New Balance of Rights and Responsibilities' in Labor Market Policy. A quantitative overview of activation strategies in 20 OECD countries" ZeS Working Paper Series 06/12. [Download]
• Eggen, Bernd and Carlo Knotz. 2009. "Wir leben länger! Aber auch länger gesund? Aspekte zur Lebenserwartung und Gesundheit älterer Menschen" Statistisches Monatsheft Baden-Württemberg 07/2009. Stuttgart: Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg. [Download]
• Eggen, Bernd and Carlo Knotz. 2009. "Methodische Anmerkungen zur Lebenserwartung und Gesundheit älterer Menschen" Statistisches Monatsheft Baden-Württemberg 07/2009. Stuttgart: Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg. [Download]

• 2024. "Do you think immigrants should not get unemployment benefits?" Medium [Access]
• 2024. "Using a website as a simple survey randomizer" Medium [Access]
• 2023. "Using two-step regression to study gender gaps across countries" Medium [Access]
• 2023. "Conjoint designs with restrictions in JavaScript". Medium [Access]
• With Mia Gandenberger, Philipp Trein, Flavia Fossati, Frédéric Varone and Giuliano Bonoli. 2020. "In der Schweiz wollen sich viele nicht gegen COVID-19 impfen lassen – fehlendes Vertrauen in die Sicherheit von Impfungen ist die Hauptursache"/"De nombreux Suisses ne veulent pas être vaccinés contre la COVID-19 — le manque de confiance dans la sécurité des vaccins en est la cause principale". DeFacto [Deutsche Version/Version française]
• 2020. "Crowd avoidance with data science" Medium [Access]
• 2020. "Governments will soon be talking about 'benefit cheats' and 'scroungers' — political scientists should do the same" European Politics and Policy, London School of Economics [Access]
• 2020. "Making data dashboard plots talk to each other with ggiraph and Shiny" Medium [Access]
• With Mia Gandenberger, J. Philipp Trein, Flavia Fossati and Giuliano Bonoli. 2020. "Migration and Mobility During COVID-19: What the Swiss General Public Thinks" NCCR — on the move COVID-19 & Mobility Blog [Access]

I've been putting together a (long but non-exhaustive) list of data sources that may be useful for term papers, BA or MA theses, or research projects. The focus is mostly on comparative politics and welfare state research/comparative political economy, but the list includes also many sources on other topics (e.g., peace & conflict or EU politics). My list likely overlaps here and there with the (excellent!) Dataset of Political Datasets.

Learning statistics and working with a statistical programming language such as R can be tough. To make this a bit easier, I put together a package to help students tabulate data with three easy-to-use functions, practice calculating statistical tests and interpreting their results with an interactive Shiny dashboard, and "de-bugging" code chunks with interactive learnr tutorials.

The package can be installed from Github: https://github.com/cknotz/bst290.

Since I've been working quite a bit with data from conjoint survey experiments recently, I wrote some R functions to check these data for potential problems (so called carryover effects and randomization problems). These are now bundled in an R package called 'cjointdatachecks', which can be installed from GitHub. The package includes a vignette, which illustrates how the functions can be used and reproduces results from the Hainmueller et al. (2014, Political Analysis) article.

I'm trying to take one or the other picture of nice stuff (mostly outdoors), and I've recently been playing around with generative art using the aRtsy package for R. Some of the results are on my Deviant Art page.